JPMorgan's Election Commentary, OPEC Decisions, Latest Developments from China: What's Happening in Global Markets?
Significant developments are taking place in global markets. JPMorgan's forecasts regarding the U.S. elections, OPEC+'s decision on production increases, the upgrade of Egypt's credit rating, and current economic measures in China are among the notable topics in the world economy. In this dynamic process, market players and analysts continue to evaluate the effects of each development.
JPMorgan shares election forecasts and new comments on Fed policy JPMorgan Asset Management has shared its forecasts on possible scenarios for the U.S. presidential elections. According to analysts, if Donald Trump wins and the Republican Party gains a majority in Congress, there is a possibility of expanded fiscal policies, rising budget deficits, and high interest rates. In this scenario, it is anticipated that the Fed will slow down interest rate cuts due to the risk of fiscal stimulus increasing inflation. In the case of a Kamala Harris victory and a divided government, a long-term soft landing process in the economy is expected to continue. Regardless of the election results, JPMorgan forecasts a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November.
OPEC+ postpones production increase decision OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it has delayed the planned production increase for December by one month. Particularly weak oil demand from China and increasing supply outside OPEC continue to exert downward pressure on the market. The eight countries in OPEC+ decided to extend the group's gradual easing of daily production restrictions until the end of December. The countries reiterated their collective commitment to full compliance with production targets.
Fitch upgrades Egypt's credit rating Fitch Ratings has upgraded Egypt's credit rating for the first time since 2019. The rating was raised from B- to B, with a stable outlook. This change is attributed to lower external risks, policy compliance, renewed external buffers, capital inflows, and a flexible exchange rate. Fitch stated that Egypt’s external financing is supported by improved policy settings and facilitated new IFI financing.
Chinese solar companies take steps against U.S. tariffs Chinese solar energy companies are diversifying their production strategies to avoid the effects of expanding tariffs from the U.S. While factories in Vietnam are cutting production and laying off workers, they continue to establish new plants in neighboring countries like Indonesia and Laos to supply the U.S. market. According to Reuters, these new factories have the capacity to supply nearly half of the panels installed in the U.S. last year. Chinese companies are constantly relocating their production centers to protect their assets against U.S. tariffs.
China sees an increase in renewable energy production According to data from the National Energy Administration of China, electricity generated from renewable energy in China increased by 20.9% in the first nine months of the year, reaching 2 trillion 510 billion kWh. Electricity from renewable energy constitutes 35.5% of the country's total energy production. During the same period, newly installed renewable energy capacity rose by 21%, accounting for 86% of the total newly added capacity. Investments in significant energy projects increased by 16.2% compared to the previous year.
China lifts restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector China has lifted all restrictions on foreign investments in the manufacturing sector. This move is seen as significant progress in the country's economic liberalization. It is also noted that foreign investments in high technology production have been growing. In the first nine months of the year, there were significant increases in foreign investment in sectors such as medical equipment and computer manufacturing.
"Economic stimulus in China could be gradual" Barclays economists indicate that the stimulus decisions announced after the upcoming meeting in China are expected to be gradual rather than broad-based as the market has anticipated. Economists forecast that the budget packages will focus on risk reduction and supporting growth. Debt swaps by local governments, capital injections into major banks, and special bonds to support the real estate sector have emerged as key topics.
Nvidia set to replace Intel in the Dow Jones index NVIDIA is preparing to replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of Wall Street's long-standing indices. According to a statement by S&P Dow Jones Indices, chipmaker Nvidia will be included in the index with the change taking effect on November 8. Sherwin-Williams Co. will also be among the names joining the index.