US Economic Data: Latest Updates on Inflation, Consumption, and Employment

September data on the U.S. economy presents a mixed picture regarding inflation, consumption, and employment indicators. The PCE Price Index rose by 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while a 0.5% increase in personal consumption expenditures and a decline in unemployment claims indicate that the economic recovery is ongoing. These figures suggest that consumer spending and the labor market continue to provide positive signals for the U.S. economy.

The PCE Price Index met expectations
According to the data released today, the PCE Price Index in the U.S. increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September. This rate matches market expectations but shows a slight decrease from the previous month's rate of 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index rose by 0.2%, which was reported in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in September, slightly exceeding market expectations.
These figures reflect the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. economy while indicating that inflation remains under control yet persists at certain levels. Market participants continue to carefully monitor these developments in relation to the Fed’s future interest rate policy.

Increase in consumption and personal income
In the U.S., personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.5% in September. This significant increase from August's rate of 0.2% signals a rise in consumer spending and a revival in economic activity. Additionally, personal incomes also increased by 0.3% in September, aligning with expectations.
These developments reflect the positive trends in American households' incomes and expenditures, highlighting that the economy is supported by consumer spending. A 0.4% year-on-year increase in real personal spending further indicates that the economic recovery is ongoing.

Employment: decrease in unemployment claims
October unemployment data point to positive trends in the U.S. labor market. Initial unemployment claims fell to 216,000, down from 227,000 the previous week. Continuing unemployment claims reached 1.862 million, reflecting a decline compared to previous data but fell short of expectations.
The decrease in unemployment claims suggests that the labor market remains resilient and that the economy is successful in generating employment. These figures serve as evidence that the national economy continues to strengthen and that employment is being supported. Economic experts are continuing to assess the impacts of these indicators on the markets.

Dollar index remains in the red today
The dollar index continues to move in the red today, maintaining its negative outlook that has persisted since the beginning of the week. Following the release of economic data in the U.S., the index has continued to decline, dropping 0.16% in the last hour and falling below the 104 level. Although the DXY rose to 104.63 earlier this week, accelerated dollar selling has caused it to drop by 0.36% since the beginning of the week to 103.93.
The weak outlook of the dollar index continues ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data. If the index closes the week below 104.31, it will end a four-week positive closing streak in which it had recorded a 4.2% increase.