SAMEKS Data Indicates Deterioration in Real Sector Activity Conditions for the Fourth Consecutive Month
The SAMEKS data for October indicates that the deterioration in the operational conditions of the real sector has reached its fourth consecutive month.
It was stated in the announcement: "In October 2024, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index increased by 1.8 points compared to the previous month, reaching a value of 48.4, yet it continues to remain below the reference value. During this period, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index rose by 2.8 points compared to the previous month, standing at 48.6. The Industry Sector SAMEKS Index also recorded a recovery of 1.3 points, increasing to a level of 45.9.
The sluggish trend in business volume continued in October, thus the downward trend in the services sector has reached its fourth month in a row. Despite the weak trend in new orders in the industrial sector, there was a rapid increase in input purchases, yet the monthly production loss continued during this period.
As a result of these developments, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index, which registered at 48.4 in October, implies a negative outlook at the beginning of the year's last quarter and indicates that the loss of momentum that began in July has persisted in the real sector.
Industry Sector SAMEKS Index The seasonally and calendar-adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index increased by 1.3 points compared to the previous month, reaching a level of 45.9 in October 2024. During this period, although the new orders sub-index rose by 1.2 points compared to the previous month, it continued to exhibit a loss of momentum, standing at 42.1 points. Input purchases, on the other hand, experienced a significant increase of 9.3 points, rising to 56.1 points, demonstrating a notable recovery.
The production sub-index, which decreased by 0.7 points to a level of 42.1 compared to the previous month, indicates that the negative trend observed across the sector continued in October. Despite a 3.9 point increase, the final goods stock sub-index stood at 45.4, while the supplier delivery times sub-index remained at 49.1, despite a 2.9 point recovery, highlighting other unfavorable developments for October.
The employment sub-index, which realized a relative increase of 0.2 points, stood at 49.1, indicating that the stagnant demand for labor continues in the industry sector. These developments suggest that the seasonally and calendar-adjusted Industry Sector SAMEKS Index, which stands at 45.9, reflects the ongoing weak outlook recorded throughout the previous quarter into the last quarter of the year.
Services Sector SAMEKS Index The seasonally and calendar-adjusted Services Sector SAMEKS Index increased by 2.8 points compared to the previous month; however, it continued its below-reference trend, standing at 48.6 points. Although input purchases exhibited a positive outlook at a level of 55.0, losing 1.6 points in momentum compared to the previous month, the business volume sub-index recorded a notable recovery, rising by 5.0 points, yet remained at a negative level of 45.5 in October.
During this period, the final goods stock sub-index, which stood at 48.4, and the supplier delivery times sub-index at a level of 46.7, represented other unfavorable indicators regarding the services sector. The employment sub-index, which saw an increase of 2.5 points, reached a level of 49.8, yet remained below the reference value, indicating that the demand for labor continues to contract. Consequently, the Services Sector SAMEKS Index, which stood at 48.6, has maintained its stagnant outlook in October.
COMMENTARY: The SAMEKS data for October suggests that the deterioration in the operational conditions of the real sector has extended into the fourth month in a row. However, with the recent normalization trend in the general price level increases, the positive outlook of input purchases in both sectors stands out. The impact of monetary tightening has led to a continued stagnant outlook for domestic demand, adversely affecting production in the industrial sector and business volume in the services sector.