FOREX NEWS SURVEY - Economists Predict 2.53% Increase in October CPI

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FOREX NEWS SURVEY - Economists Predict 2.53% Increase in October CPI

Foreks - Economists' median monthly prediction for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October is an increase of 2.53%, while the average prediction indicates a rise of 2.49%. Despite expecting a slight decline in trends for October after the negative surprise in September, economists indicate that achieving a reduction to the extent highlighted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is difficult to envision.

According to a survey conducted by Foreks with 18 economists, the median prediction for the annual CPI data for October is an increase of 48.07%, while the average prediction suggests an increase of 48.02%. The highest and lowest expectations for monthly CPI increases are 3.00% and 2.00%, respectively, while annual predictions range between 48.76% and 47.30%.

The CPI data for August was announced at an increase of 2.97%, while a monthly increase of 2.20% was anticipated, and the annual inflation rate was recorded at 49.38%.

For the inflation rate at the end of 2024, the median prediction is 44.19%, with the average prediction at 44.17%. The highest expectation for the year-end CPI in the survey is 48.50%, while the lowest is 44.00%. In the previous month’s survey, the forecast indicated an increase of 43.00%, with expectations ranging from 45.00% to 42.00%.

The survey revealed a median CPI expectation of 28.10% for 12 months later, with a maximum expectation of 35.00% and a minimum of 24.90%.

Expectations for the CPI by the end of 2025 point to an increase of 25.50%, with the expectation range between 30.00% and 23.00%. In the previous survey period, the end-of-2025 expectation concentrated around an increase of 25.00%.

Excluding energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and gold, the monthly increase in the C Index of CPI was 2.76%, while the annual expectation was 47.70%.

  • Dollar/TL Rate Survey In the dollar/TL rate survey for the end of 2024, 9 economists participated. The median prediction is 36.0000, while the average prediction is 36.0344. The highest and lowest predictions for the rate are 37.0000 and 35.2500, respectively. In the Foreks survey in September, the year-end dollar/TL rate expectation was at 37.0000.

Analysts' expectations for the dollar/TL rate by the end of 2025 stand at 44.5000. Among the 7 participants in the end-of-next-year rate expectation question, the highest prediction is 45.7100, while the lowest is 42.2000. In the previous survey, the end-of-2025 predictions were 44.5800.

  • Economist Expectations Rota Portfolio Chief Economist Özlem Bayraktar Gökşen mentioned that they expect a monthly inflation increase of 2.5% in the last quarter of the year, adding that “If our forecast materializes, annual inflation will continue to decline and will reach around 48%. The last quarter is expected to be a period where significant declines in monthly inflation trends will guide the CBRT.”

Despite anticipating a slight decline in trends in October following the negative surprise from the inflation data in September, Özlem Bayraktar Gökşen emphasized that it would be quite challenging to achieve the level of decline emphasized by the CBRT.

"Returning to the sub-components of October inflation, we particularly see that seasonal factors, especially due to food and clothing prices, are prominent. It is possible to see monthly inflation trends approaching 2% in seasonally adjusted data. We expect the trend to continue to decline in the coming months, however, due to the more sticky appearance of the process than anticipated, we expect inflation to finish the year at around 43.7%, above the CBRT forecasts."

It should be noted that despite a clear decline in domestic demand factors, there has not been an indication of a cooling that would lead to the anticipated disinflation trajectory. Under this inflation outlook, we maintain our estimate for interest rate cuts beginning in December. However, we do not disregard the possibility that the CBRT may want to see the minimum wage increase set for 2025 and could postpone interest rate reductions slightly.

The inflation data for September will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) on October 4th, Monday at 10:00 AM.

NOTE: Officials from relevant banks/institutions who wish to participate in the inflation survey organized by the Foreks News Center can send an email to [email protected].

WARNINGS: Survey data must be used with attribution to 'Foreks News'.