Projected Decline: General Government Revenue to GDP Ratio Expected to Fall by 0.6 Points to 31.3% by 2025
Forecast - It is projected that the ratio of general government revenue to GDP will decrease by 0.6 points to 31.3% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The "Decision on the Approval of the 2025 Presidential Annual Program" prepared by the Presidency was published in the Official Gazette's additional issue.
According to the program, tax revenues are expected to increase by 0.9 points, while other revenues are anticipated to decrease by 1.5 points. The expected decrease in other revenues is estimated to be due to tax revenues by 0.1 points, factor incomes by 0.7 points, and social security contributions by 0.6 points.
The program included the following information: "It is expected that general government expenditures will decrease by 2.5 points to 34.2% of GDP in 2025 compared to the previous year. During this period, it is predicted that current expenditures will decrease by 0.9 points, investment expenditures will decrease by 0.7 points, and capital transfers will decrease by 1.1 points, while current transfers are expected to increase by 0.1 points.
In line with these developments, it is anticipated that the general government deficit as a ratio of GDP will decrease by 1.9 points to 2.9% in 2025 compared to the previous year. At the same time, the primary balance of the general government is expected to improve by 2.2 points, yielding a surplus of 0.4%.
For 2025, the need for public sector borrowing as a ratio of GDP is projected to decrease by 2.2 points to 2.7%, and the program-defined public sector deficit is expected to decline to 0.2% with an improvement of 2.7 points.
It is expected that the EU-defined general government debt stock will be 25.3% of GDP by the end of 2025."
-Central Government Budget- In 2025, the central government budget revenues are targeted to be 12,800.3 billion TL, while budget expenditures are programmed to be 14,731 billion TL. As a result of this revenue estimate and anticipated expenditure size, the budget deficit is expected to amount to 1,930.7 billion TL, which corresponds to 3.1% of GDP.
Of the anticipated budget expenditures, 583.7 billion TL is allocated for rebuilding the earthquake-affected areas and increasing disaster resilience. Excluding these expenditures, the budget deficit as a ratio of GDP is expected to be 2.2%.
The program continued as follows: "In 2025, personnel expenditures, which consist of government premiums paid to social security institutions and the reserve allocated for personnel, were determined considering that the overall salary increase rates will be applied as 6% in January and 5% in July as agreed in the collective bargaining, with differences arising depending on the inflation forecast also taken into account. In this respect, total personnel expenditures are projected to be 3,937.2 billion TL, with the ratio to GDP decreasing by 0.4 points to 6.4%.
For 2025, the expenses for the purchase of goods and services have been determined as 1,023.7 billion TL. This amount has been set in line with policies aimed at making savings in current expenditures and eliminating inefficient spending areas. In this context, the ratio of goods and services purchases to GDP is expected to show a decrease of 0.1 points compared to the previous year.
It is projected that current transfers in 2025 will amount to 5,813.4 billion TL, representing 9.4% of GDP. Two-thirds of current transfer expenditures consist of transfers made to the health and social security system and shared tax revenues from the general budget allocated to local administrations and funds. In this context, transfers to the health and social security system are anticipated to be 2,253.3 billion TL, while shares transferred to local administrations and funds are expected to be 1,680 billion TL. Additionally, allocations of 503.5 billion TL and 220 billion TL are designated for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public banks, respectively, while agricultural transfers are projected to be 135 billion TL and 120 billion TL for the resilient cities project.
In 2025, it is programmed that capital expenditures will amount to 1,102.4 billion TL, corresponding to 1.8% of GDP. An allocation of 199.5 billion TL is earmarked for the construction and repair costs of public institution service buildings and facilities affected by the earthquake, along with other earthquake-related expenses.
A total of 37.4 billion TL is programmed for goods and services expenditures to cover the operational costs of city hospitals completed under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model and 67.2 billion TL for capital expenditures for building usage and mandatory services. Furthermore, 97.6 billion TL is additionally allocated to current transfers to finance demand guarantees provided under completed transportation projects within the PPP model.
It is expected that capital transfers will amount to 338 billion TL in 2025, representing 0.5% of GDP. In this context, 244.9 billion TL is allocated for housing construction and infrastructure costs, 22.9 billion TL for social housing construction, 7.5 billion TL for rural development, 3.9 billion TL for water projects, 2.9 billion TL for development agencies, and 600 million TL for the Social Support Program. Additionally, 8.5 billion TL is allocated for Northern Cyprus and 17 billion TL for TÜBİTAK R&D projects.
In 2025, borrowing items are anticipated to reach 306.1 billion TL, constituting 0.5% of GDP. Of this amount, 229.2 billion TL is allocated to SOEs, 11.5 billion TL to Eximbank, and 1.5 billion TL to the Credit Guarantee Fund. Furthermore, an allocation of 27.8 billion TL is foreseen for student loans and scholarships, and 4 billion TL for loans given to Northern Cyprus.
It is expected that interest expenses will amount to 1,950 billion TL in 2025, corresponding to 3.2% of GDP.
In 2025, with an approach aimed at broadening the tax base, it is expected that the general budget tax revenues will reach 18.1% of GDP, representing an increase of 0.9 points compared to the previous year by strengthening equity in taxation, fighting against informality, and enhancing collection rates through effective oversight. On the other hand, tax revenues excluding tax revenues are projected to decrease by 0.6 points, with total revenues of the central government budget expected to be 20.8%, which is 0.3 points higher than the 2024 forecasts. The increase in tax revenues is anticipated to mainly arise from income taxes and VAT, special consumption tax (SCT), and banking and insurance transactions tax (BSMV). The decrease in non-tax revenues primarily stems from private revenues and treasury interest.
In 2025, it is expected that total collections from taxes on income, profit, and capital gains will rise by 0.4 points compared to the 2024 estimate, reaching 6.1% of GDP. The implementation of minimum income and corporate tax measures in 2025, the limitation of capital gains exemptions concerning real estate, and the full-year impact of the withholding tax rate increase made in 2024 are regarded as revenue-increasing factors.
Recent legal regulations and determined steps taken in practice, mainly to combat informality, are also expected to contribute to a continued recovery in VAT collections from the domestic market. Accordingly, VAT collections from the domestic market are forecasted to reach 2.4% of GDP in 2025, which is 0.2 points higher than the previous year's estimate.
The fixed rates of SCT will continue to be updated based on changes in the general price level. In 2025, it is estimated that the SCT collection ratio will be 3.4%, which is 0.2 points above the previous year's expected realization. While the SCT collections from petroleum and natural gas products are forecasted to remain at the same level as the 2024 realization, the SCT on motor vehicles is expected to exceed the previous year's estimate by 0.1 points. The SCT collections from alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, durable consumer goods, and sugary soft drinks are predicted to remain similar to the previous year's estimate as a ratio of GDP in 2025.
In 2025, it is expected that the VAT collections from imports will reach 3.4% of GDP, with a 0.1-point increase due to currency and import forecasts.
The BSMV collection ratio is projected to be 0.9%, which is 0.1 points higher than the previous year's estimate. The total collections from the lottery tax and special communication tax are expected to remain at the same level as the 2024 realization, reflecting a ratio of 0.2%.
In 2025, it is anticipated that the central government budget's non-tax revenues will be 2.7% of GDP, which is 0.6 points below the previous year's forecast.