Headline: FKB-EGE Rises by 0.65 Points in September to Reach 99.53

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Headline: FKB-EGE Rises by 0.65 Points in September to Reach 99.53

The Economic Outlook Index of the Financial Institutions Association (FKB-EGE) increased by 0.65 points in September compared to August, reaching 99.53 points. The Financial Institutions Association has published its "Economic Outlook Index Bulletin." The FKB-EGE has been calculated monthly since February 2015. The index rose until March 2018 but began to decline from April 2018, reaching its lowest point in October 2018. Since November 2018, the index has shown fluctuations based on trends in the sectors it comprises.

FKB Factoring Sector Index
Derived from data used in reporting and statistical activities within the FKB through the Central Invoice Registration System (MFKS), the index recorded its lowest value in May 2020 at 97.57 points and its highest at 103.59 points in March 2015. The index exhibits fluctuations based on the state of the factoring sector. Recent changes indicate that, compared to August 2024, when the index was at 99.75, it rose by 0.84 points to 100.59 in September.

FKB Financial Leasing Sector Index
Derived from data used in reporting and statistical activities within the FKB via the Financial Leasing Contract Registration System (FKSTS) database, the index recorded its lowest value in October 2018 at 88.82 points and its highest in April 2023 at 105.55 points. The index shows fluctuations according to trends in the financial leasing sector. The index value, recorded at 101.18 points in August 2024, increased by 1.14 points to 102.32 in September.

FKB Financing Sector Index
Derived from data used in reporting and statistical activities within the FKB, the index recorded its lowest value in October 2023 at 95.24 points, and its highest in December 2017 at 106.52 points. Looking at recent months' data, the index value slightly decreased from 95.69 in August 2024 to 95.67 in September.

Inflation Expectations
The research surveyed sector managers on their inflation expectations for the end of the current month, the end of the current year, and the end of the next year. In the October 2024 survey period, assessing the participants’ monthly inflation expectations showed that 25.6% expected inflation below 2.15%, 42.3% between 2.16-2.61%, 18% between 2.62-3.08%, 10.3% between 3.09-3.54%, and 3.9% above 3.55%. Calculating without outliers, the average inflation expectation for October was found to be 2.54%. Reviewing the six-month trend of average monthly inflation expectations, participants anticipated a decline in the initial months and stability in the final month. The average current year-end inflation expectation was estimated at 45.21% for the end of 2024 after calculating without outliers. Observing the six-month trend of current year-end inflation expectations indicates initial fluctuations followed by general predictions of a decline in recent months.