Headline: Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Projects Growth in Q3 2024

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Headline: Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Projects Growth in Q3 2024

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMP) showcased strong performance in the third quarter of 2024. Global beverage shipments increased by 2%, while adjusted EBITDA rose by 15% year-on-year. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast to between $650 million and $660 million due to strong performance in Europe and continued demand for beverage cans.

A significant virtual energy purchase agreement signed in Portugal brings the company closer to its 100% renewable energy target by 2030. Despite some regional challenges in Brazil, AMP's overall financial health appears robust. The company declared a quarterly dividend and anticipates a liquidity position of approximately $1 billion by year-end.

Key Highlights:

  • Global beverage shipments grew by 2%, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 15%.
  • European revenue rose by 2%, with adjusted EBITDA up by 18%.
  • Americas revenue grew by 1%, with adjusted EBITDA up by 13%.
  • Full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast raised to $650 million to $660 million.
  • A significant virtual energy purchase agreement was signed in Portugal to support renewable energy targets.
  • Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was reported at $150 million.
  • A quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share was announced, payable in December.
  • Stock issues are expected to be resolved in the coming months, supporting a stronger fourth quarter.

Company Outlook:

  • Optimism for 2025 growth due to stable consumer conditions and packaging mix changes.
  • Low single-digit growth projected for North America, with potential upside from packaging innovation.
  • Brazil is expected to maintain growth, with conservative forecasts in mid-single digits for 2025.
  • Capacity is expected to support growth for another year or two without significant new capital expenditures.
  • No need to enhance promotional activities for growth in Europe, as the market shows resilience.

Challenges:

  • A specific customer issue in Brazil led to volume declines and downtime at a brewery.
  • A weaker August and challenges in Brazil were observed, but there was improvement in Europe in October.
  • Energy category and beer generally show weakness, despite some growth.
  • Customer caution extended into the first quarter, leading to lower growth estimates.

Positive Aspects:

  • Strong growth in Europe, historically a 2%-3% average in beverage cans.
  • Improvements in demand for carbonated drinks and sparkling water.
  • Recovery in Germany and shifts in consumer preferences are boosting demand.
  • Stock levels expected to balance by winter, contributing to a stronger fourth quarter.

Shortcomings:

  • The company indicated a reduction in expectations for the Americas in the fourth quarter due to issues in Brazil.

Q&A Highlights:

  • Long-term trend in Brazil supports single-use packaging built on double-digit growth.
  • Continuous improvement emphasized in capital efficiency and operational excellence.
  • Low capacity utilization expected between $30 million to $40 million for 2024, with recovery forecasted alongside growth.
  • Customers seek better pricing conditions, with the company prepared to manage potential challenges.

In conclusion, Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is navigating a complex market environment through strategic initiatives and focus on renewable energy, efficiency, and market demand. With strong performance in the third quarter of 2024 and positive adjustments in its full-year guidance, AMP demonstrates resilience and adaptability in a dynamic industry.

InvestingPro Insights: Ardagh Metal Packaging SA’s (AMBP) strong performance in the third quarter of 2024 is reflected in recent InvestingPro data and insights. The company’s market cap stands at $2.33 billion, highlighting its significant presence in the metal packaging industry.

One of the InvestingPro Tips highlights that net income is expected to rise this year, aligning with the company’s upgraded full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $650 million to $660 million. This positive outlook is further supported by three analysts revising their earnings forecasts upwards for the upcoming period, indicating increased confidence in AMBP’s financial trajectory.

According to the latest data, the company’s 10.23% dividend yield confirms an InvestingPro Tip that AMBP pays a substantial dividend to shareholders. This is consistent with the quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share announced in the earnings report, demonstrating AMBP’s commitment to returning value to investors despite market challenges.

As of the second quarter of 2024, AMBP’s trailing twelve-month revenue reached $4.826 billion, showing a modest growth of 4.12% in the same period. This growth, although modest, supports the reported 2% increase in global beverage shipments, emphasizing its capability to sustain revenue growth in a competitive market.

While the company performed strongly in some areas, it is notable that according to InvestingPro data, it shows a negative P/E ratio of -31.89, indicating AMBP has not been profitable over the last twelve months. However, this is balanced by an InvestingPro Tip stating analysts expect the company to be profitable this year, aligning with the positive outlook presented in the earnings report.

For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights. Currently, there are 5 more InvestingPro Tips available for AMBP, providing deeper understanding on the company’s financial health and market position.