Trump's Chance of Winning the White House Rises Again After Sharp Decline in Weekend Prediction Markets

According to data compiled by Axios, the chance of Donald Trump winning the election has rebounded today after a sharp decline over the weekend in the world's largest prediction markets. Axios stated, "Former President Trump's chances of reclaiming the White House experienced a sharp drop in prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi over the weekend. Then, it rose again."

Trump's chance of regaining the White House was at 67% on Polymarket on October 30, fell to 53% on Sunday, and rose again to 62% on Tuesday morning.

Vice President Harris's chances increased from 33% to 47% and subsequently retreated to 38%.

However, Axios noted that the odds in prediction markets do not indicate that either Trump or Harris will win the election, mentioning, "One day before the 2016 election, the probability of Clinton winning on PredictIt was 82%. Yet, Trump won. Bettors gave a 90% chance that UK voters would reject Brexit. But the supporters of Brexit won."