Market Participants' Year-End Inflation Expectations Rise to 44.81%
In the Forex report, the market participants' year-end consumer price index (CPI) expectation has increased from 44.11% to 44.81%, according to the survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The results of the "Market Participants Survey" for November have been released. The November 2024 Market Participants Survey was answered by 68 participants from the real sector and the financial sector, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the responses.
The survey results are as follows: "The participants' expectation for the current year's year-end consumer inflation (CPI) was 44.11% in the previous survey period, and in this survey period, it has risen to 44.81%. The CPI expectation for 12 months later was 27.44% in the previous survey period, whereas in this survey period, it is 27.20%. For the CPI expectation 24 months later, the percentages were 18.08% and 18.33% in the respective survey periods.
In the November 2024 survey period, when evaluating the participants' probability forecasts for 12 months later, it is anticipated that the CPI will increase with an average probability of 33.93% in the range of 23.00 – 25.99, 36.97% in the range of 26.00 – 28.99, and 16.94% in the range of 29.00 - 31.99. Based on point estimates in the same survey period, it was observed that 26.98% of participants expected an increase in the range of 23.00 – 25.99, 38.10% in the range of 26.00 – 28.99, and 20.63% in the range of 29.00 – 31.99.
When evaluating the participants' probability forecasts for 24 months later in the November 2024 survey period, the CPI is projected to increase with an average probability of 20.28% in the range of 14.00 – 16.99, 47.20% in the range of 17.00 – 19.99, and 22.30% in the range of 20.00 – 22.99. Based on point estimates in the same survey period, it was observed that 17.86% of participants expected an inflation rate in the range of 14.00 - 16.99, 41.07% in the range of 17.00 – 19.99, and 30.36% in the range of 20.00 – 22.99.
The expectations of participants for the overnight interest rate at the month-end resulting from the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market and the CBRT's one-week repo auction interest rate were both reported as 50.00%, consistent with the previous survey period. Participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024 has also remained at 3.1%, as it was in the previous survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2025 decreased from 3.3% in the previous survey period to 3.2% in this survey."